The European Union’s latest customs reform is already reshaping the global air cargo landscape. While the new regulation primarily targets low-value e-commerce imports into the EU, its effects are being felt throughout international supply chains as airlines, freight forwarders, exporters, and importers adapt to changing trade flows.

From 1 July 2026, the EU introduced a temporary €3 customs duty on low-value consignments (up to €150) imported from outside the European Union. The measure forms part of the EU Customs Reform package and is designed to create fairer competition for European businesses, improve consumer safety, combat customs fraud, and modernise customs procedures (European Commission, 2026a; Council of the European Union, 2025).

Although the regulation is customs-focused, its impact extends well beyond border administration. The air cargo industry has already begun responding through capacity adjustments, network optimisation, and route diversification.

Why the EU Introduced the New Policy

The previous customs framework allowed imported goods valued below €150 to enter the EU without customs duties. However, the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce (particularly from Asian online marketplaces) created significant challenges for customs authorities and European businesses.

According to the European Commission, millions of low-value parcels enter the EU every day, many of which are either undervalued, falsely declared, or fail to comply with EU product safety standards. The new duty seeks to level the playing field between EU and non-EU sellers while strengthening customs enforcement and protecting consumers (European Commission, 2026a).

Reuters reports that parcel volumes entering the EU increased from approximately 1.4 billion in 2022 to 5.8 billion in 2025, illustrating the remarkable expansion of cross-border e-commerce that prompted the reform (Reuters, 2026).

Immediate Impact on Air Cargo Capacity

Although the policy has only recently come into effect, airlines have already begun adjusting their operations.

According to Rotate’s latest market analysis, relevant Asia-Europe freighter capacity declined by approximately 8% during the first week of July compared with the previous period. Meanwhile, direct China-Europe freighter capacity fell by around 14%, although roughly half of this decline resulted from airlines rerouting aircraft and changing technical stops rather than permanently withdrawing capacity (Rotate, 2026).

This suggests that the market is undergoing a period of network optimisation rather than a structural reduction in air cargo services.

Airlines Are Re-routing Rather Than Reducing Operations

One of the most notable responses has been the reallocation of aircraft across different hubs.

Rotate’s analysis shows several China-Europe services into traditional gateways being suspended while new routings have emerged through alternative hubs such as Dubai World Central (DWC). These adjustments allow airlines to maintain aircraft utilisation while responding to shifting cargo demand and evolving regulatory requirements (Rotate, 2026).

Such operational flexibility reflects a common characteristic of the air cargo industry. Airlines routinely adjust networks in response to changing market demand, geopolitical developments, and regulatory changes to maximise efficiency and maintain service reliability.

Not All European Gateways Are Affected Equally

The effects of the policy vary considerably across Europe.

Traditional e-commerce gateways experienced the largest reductions in inbound freighter capacity:

• Budapest (BUD): −44%
• Madrid (MAD): −39%
• Liège (LGG): −19%

Meanwhile, several airports recorded capacity growth over the same period:

• London Stansted (STN): +25%
• Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG): +7%

These figures indicate that airlines are redistributing capacity toward alternative gateways rather than reducing their overall presence in the European market (Rotate, 2026).

Could Trade Flows Shift Beyond the EU?

Earlier industry analysis by Rotate and Skyforge identified Belgium and Hungary as among the European countries most exposed to China-origin e-commerce imports.

The analysis also suggests that countries outside the EU customs framework (including the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway) could become increasingly attractive as alternative distribution hubs for e-commerce operators seeking to optimise their European logistics networks (Rotate, 2026).

Reuters similarly reports that market analysts expect EU-bound e-commerce air cargo volumes to decline by 10% to 35%, although much of this cargo may simply be redirected through different logistics channels rather than disappearing altogether (Reuters, 2026).

What This Means for the Logistics Industry

For Freight Forwarders

Market conditions are becoming increasingly dynamic. Airline schedules, available capacity, and preferred routing options may continue to evolve as carriers optimise their networks. Freight forwarders should remain agile by diversifying carrier options, monitoring market developments, and providing customers with proactive logistics solutions.

For Exporters

Exporters shipping from Asia into Europe should anticipate possible fluctuations in air freight capacity, transit times, and freight rates. Businesses moving high-value, time-sensitive, or seasonal cargo should consider securing capacity earlier and remaining flexible when selecting European gateways.

For Importers

European importers may experience changes in arrival airports, customs processing, and inland distribution patterns as cargo networks continue to adjust. Close collaboration with experienced logistics providers will help minimise disruption while maintaining supply chain visibility.

Conclusion

The EU’s new customs policy represents more than a regulatory adjustment, it signals a significant shift in the way international e-commerce supply chains will operate in the coming years.

While the immediate market response has been a reduction in direct China-Europe freighter capacity, the broader trend suggests a redistribution of cargo flows rather than an overall contraction of air cargo demand. Airlines are actively rerouting aircraft, reallocating capacity, and exploring alternative gateways as they adapt to the new regulatory landscape.

For freight forwarders, exporters, and importers, this means supply chains will become increasingly dynamic. Success will depend on staying informed, planning shipments proactively, and remaining flexible as market conditions continue to evolve.

At Forin Logistics, we closely monitor global regulatory developments and air cargo market trends to help our customers make informed logistics decisions, minimise disruption, and build resilient international supply chains.

References

Council of the European Union (2025) Customs: Council agrees to levy customs duty on small parcels as of 1 July 2026. 12 December. Available at: Council of the European Union (Accessed: 27 July 2026).

European Commission (2026a) Ensuring fairness and safety: €3 customs duty for low-value parcels. Directorate-General for Communication, 29 June. Available at: European Commission (Accessed: 27 July 2026).

European Commission (2026b) Guidance and legal text on temporary flat fee on low-value imports which will apply until 1 July 2028. Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, 8 June. Available at: European Commission Taxation and Customs Union (Accessed: 27 July 2026).

Reuters (2026) EU slaps €3 fee on cheap ecommerce parcels in blow to Shein, Temu, AliExpress. 1 July. Available at: Reuters (Accessed: 27 July 2026).

Rotate (2026) Impact of EU Policy: Customer Update. Customer update, 10 July.